Modeling the cost transmission mechanism of the emission trading scheme in China

Ju Yiyi1*, Fujikawa Kiyoshi2

1 Graduate School of InternationalDevelopment, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan

2 Applied Social System Institute of ASIA, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan

Highlights

The transmission mechanism of emission abatement cost brought by ETS is modeled; 

Rises in household consumption would occur in net emission importer cities; 

Such rises would be brought by the emissions embodied in other sectors rather than the ETS covering sector.

The increase rate of the rises in household consumption in most sectors (745 of the 810) would be below 0.1%. 

There is still room for the ETS market price to be further increased.

 

摘 要

2017年底，全国碳排放交易市场宣布启动第一阶段，仅覆盖电力供应部门，并预计将在2020年正式运行。在现阶段，被8个试点市场覆盖的供电企业，正面对着不同区域在减排成本和环境规制上的差异。这种差异是导致国内区域间的碳泄漏的重要原因，会降低碳交易市场政策的减排成效，也会引起居民消费不同幅度的上升。尤其在中国，上网电价、居民用电及工业用电独立定价，且电力市场化发展尚未成熟，从宏观角度看，供电单位（生产者）无法将由碳市场带来的额外减排成本自动传导至用电单位（消费者），此部分直接减排成本仅有生产者全部负担。考虑到电力行业的这一特点，本文基于2012年区域间电力部门隐含碳排放流动，建立了中国碳市场成本传导机制模型，以揭示不同碳市场场景下，居民消费不同幅度的上升。结果显示，试点城市为隐含碳排放的净进口城市，包含了直接进口（来自其他区域的电力供给）与间接进口（来自其他区域的其他行业的电力使用）。居民消费受到碳市场影响较大部门的有，金属矿物采选部门-河北（10.1%）、汽油与煤气供应部门-黑龙江（9.9%）以及非金属矿物采选部门-四川（3.5%）。然而，大部分部门（745/810）的增长幅度低于0.1%，本文认为，在居民消费的价格稳定性得到保障的前提下，目前的碳市场平均市场价格有进一步上升至指导价格的空间。

Abstract

The national emission trading scheme (ETS) in China, CHN-ETS, was established in 2017 following the start of its regional pilot markets in 2013. It will start with a coverage of electricity supply sector and eight pilot regions. Due to a highly regulated dispatch and pricing system in the electricity supply sector, the additional emission abatement costs brought by the ETS cannot be automatically conveyed between consumers and producers in all regions. This paper modeled the cost transmission of ETS in three scenarios based on the quantification results of regional and sectoral emission flows in the electricity supply sector under consumption-based accounting. The results show that the emissions transferred into pilot cities outweighed the emissions transferred out, not only through direct electricity uses but also through the indirect emissions embodied in other sectors that required intermediate inputs from electricity supply sectors in the pilot cities. Through the cost transmission mechanism, the additional abatement cost caused by the national ETS drove the increases in the household consumption of several energy-intensive sectors, including the metal mining sector in Hebei, the petroleum and gas sector in Heilongjiang, and the nonmetal mining sector in Sichuan, with a sensitive increase of 10.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5%, respectively. However, most sectors (745 of the 810) would suffer an increase rate below 0.1%. As long as the household welfare would be ensured, there is still room for the current average market price in the pilot cities to be further increased toward the official guidance price in the nation-wide market.

Keywords：Consumption-based emissions, cost transmission, emission trading scheme, pilot cities. 

金属质感分割线

分割线  箭头 动态

Table 4. The transmission of additional abatement costs to the household consumptions