Highlights

We developed a novel framework for the optimal planning of urban renewable systems.

Systems’ emissions and economic considerations are included for planning.

Impact of different load profiles on the systems’ life-cycle cost is studied.

Cost-benefit analysis of integrating natural gas with urban renewables is assessed.

The developed approach is applied to a model city (Victoria, Canada).

02摘要

可再生能源的城市电气化是实现低碳和气候适应性社区的关键战略。考虑到不同类型的电力用户(例如住宅、商业和工业)，这项工作开发了一个系统和直截了当的框架，以便利用实际的实时每小时电力负荷，对城市太阳能/风能/生物质(/天然气)系统进行社区规模的优化规划。为了达到这一目标，我们确定了三种电力方案：(i)100%天然气；(ii)天然气和可再生能源；(iii)100%可再生能源(例如太阳能/风能/生物量)，并确定了三种能源方案中每一种情况下具有最少NPC的混合系统。我们的结果表明，向工业部门提供每千瓦时可再生电力(0.385 /千瓦时)的成本比商业部门(0.399 /千瓦时)低4%，比居民区(0.418 /千瓦时)低约5%。住宅系统的更大的电费(COE)主要是由于太阳能光伏组分的电池更大。此外，太阳能/风能/生物质发电厂的COE比等效太阳能/风能发电系统低三倍。同样，通过将一台低排放天然气(Ng)发电机集成到太阳能/风能/生物质混合工厂中，该系统的COE降低了30%，从而使每年温室气体排放量增加了近三个数量级。为了解决与输入变量相关的不确定性和变化的模型精度问题，我们进一步对系统的COE地址进行了灵敏度分析，通过对光伏电池板和电池的折现率和资本成本的变化，对不确定度和与输入变量相关的变化进行了模型精度分析。因此，系统的COE被检测到比太阳能电池板对电池的资本成本更敏感。这项研究可以帮助决策者制定更有效的政策和机制，以支持城市混合可再生能源系统。

03

Abstract

Urban electrification with renewables is a crucial strategy for achieving low-carbon and climate-resilient communities. Given the different types of power customers (e.g., residential, commercial and industrial), this work develops a systematic and straightforward framework for the optimal planning of urban solar/wind/biomass (/natural gas) systems at neighbourhood scale using the actual real-time hourly electric loads. In achieving this objective, we defined three power scenarios (i) 100% natural gas; (ii) natural gas and renewables; (iii) 100% renewables (e.g., solar/wind/biomass) and identified the hybrid systems with the least NPC for each of the three power scenarios. Our results indicate that providing per kilowatt-hour renewable electricity to the industrial sector (0.385 USD/kWh) costs 4% less than the commercial (0.399 USD/kWh) and about 5% less than the residential sector (0.418 USD/kWh) at neighbourhood scales. The more significant cost of electricity (COE) of the residential system is primarily due to the greater batteries to solar PV fractions. Also, COE of solar/wind/biomass plant showed to be three times less than the equivalent solar/wind power system. Likewise, by integrating a low-emission natural gas (NG) generator to the hybrid solar/wind/biomass plant, the system's COE reduced by 30% while resulting in close to three order-of-magnitude higher annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To address the model accuracy concerning the uncertainty and variations associated with input variables, we further conducted the sensitivity analysis of the systems' COE address the model accuracy concerning the uncertainty and variations associated with input variables by changes in the discount rate and capital cost of the PV panels and batteries. As a result, systems’ COE was detected to be more sensitive to the capital cost of batteries than solar panels. This study can help decision-makers in developing more effective policies and mechanisms to support the urban hybrid renewable energy systems.

Keywords：

Urban electrification

Hybrid renewable power system

Load patterns

Neighborhood scales

City of Victoria

Fig. 1. A schematic plot of the three proposed power scenarios (a) 100% natural gas, (b) natural gas and renewables (c) 100% renewables.

Fig. 2. Daily radiation and clearness index profile (a), wind speed (b) profiles for Victoria.

Fig. 7. Sectoral cost breakdown by (a) types (b) components of 100% renewables (scenario iii).