人类活动导致的温室气体排放加速了全球变暖。为实现《巴黎协定》的温升控制目标，中国政府承诺2030年的CO2排放强度较2005年下降60~65%。省际
碳排放权分配为实现我国2030目标提供了可行的路径。为此，本文基于2016~2030年我国碳排放配额总量核算结果，构建改进的零和收益数据包络分析（ZSG-DEA）模型，制定科学合理的省际碳排放配额分配方案。结果显示，通过削减一些北方省区的碳排放配额，可以将其DEA效率提升至最优水平；相反，多数南方省区通过适当增加碳排放配额，其DEA效率将提升至最优。我们将各省区最终碳排放配额与其当前碳排放规模进行比较，发现
山西、
内蒙古和
陕西等化石能源储量丰富省区未来的碳排放空间方为负；相比之下，广东、
湖南、
福建等省区拥有较为充裕的碳排放空间，而
黑龙江、
河北、
宁夏等省区则接近盈亏平衡点。研究表明，“共同但有区别的”碳排放配额分配方案是实现我国2030年
减排目标的关键手段。研究成果为建立我国省区间协同减排机制、分解和落实《巴黎协定》提供了科学依据，同时也为不同尺度区域
碳减排责任的划分提供了决策参考。
Accelerating global warming has suggested the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activities. In striving to fulfill the Paris Agreement, China has announced its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) aimed at reducing its carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity by 60–65% in 2030 against the level of 2005. However, China’s INDCs cannot be fulfilled without formulating appropriate schemes for the allocation of carbon emission allowance (CEA) at sub-national scales. To help close the gap in our knowledge, this paper starts with measuring the overall CEA of China by 2030, and then proposes a science-based scheme for CEA allocation by developing an improved zero sum gains-data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model. It demonstrates that the final CEA of some northern provinces can be cut down as compared to their initial shares and, conversely, most southern provinces experience an increase in their CEA. Comparing the final share of CEA by province with current carbon emissions, we observe that provinces with abundant energy reserves, such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, tend to be operating in a state of overshoot in terms of space for carbon emissions (SCE). In contrast, there remains SCE when it comes to Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, etc. The remaining provinces, such as Heilongjiang, Hebei and Ningxia, are close to the break-even point. In view of the differing SCE of individual provinces, common but differentiated policies for CO2 emission control would be the key to achieving China’s INDCs. The research findings lay a scientific basis for the Chinese government to make its INDCs come true through inter-provincial collaboration on emission reduction, but also serve as a reference for fueling further scientific discussions and development of schemes for the allocation of responsibility for carbon emissions at multiple scales within and beyond China.
Keywords
· Paris Agreement
· Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
· multi-criteria allocation
· zero sum gains-data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA)
· carbon emission allowance (CEA)
· space for carbon emissions (SCE)
Fig. 1. Schematic of CEA allocation.
Fig. 5. Geographical distribution of provincial CEA through reallocation.
Fig. 6. Frequency distribution of provincial CEA through reallocation.
Fig. 7. The ranking of all the provinces based on the four principles.
