原文信息：CO2 emission patterns in shrinking andgrowing cities: A case study of Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta原文链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191931058X

01HighlightsCO2 emission inventories of shrinking and growing cities are compiled.Emission patterns of various shrinking and growing cities are investigated.CO2 emission mitigation of shrinking cities occurred with the decline of secondary industry.Growing cities can achieve emissions mitigation with economic growth.Results are helpful for shrinking and growing cities’ sustainable development.

02摘要
在城市实施二氧化碳减排政策是中国实现国家减排目标的关键。中国正经历着快速的城市化进程，面临着巨大的区域发展不平等，萎缩型城市开始产生。本研究首次通过与成长型城市的比较，探讨萎缩型城市的长期二氧化碳排放模式。通过选取东北、长三角地区55个城市为例，本研究首先用人口指数将这些城市分为三组萎缩型城市和三组成长型城市。然后研究每组城市在能源、就业和产业结构方面的排放模式。我们发现在快速萎缩型小组的二氧化碳排放呈现持续增长的趋势，而其他5组在2011-2013年达到了排放峰值。对于轻度和中度萎缩型城市来说，二氧化碳减排随着第二产业的衰退出现，特别是对于资源型或重型制造业城市，如中国东北的大庆和鞍山。在增长型城市中，城市均有能力减少二氧化碳排放并维持经济增长。轻度增长型组是这其中的最佳类型，它的碳排放量在下降，在2013-2015年经历着年增长率为−1.47%，而经济仍在高速增长（每年增长7.27%）。本研究所提供的城市分类规则、研究思路及研究成果，可为其他处于类似工业化或城市化阶段的城市或发展中国家缩短通往低碳经济之路提供参考。

03AbstractThe implementation of CO2 emission mitigation policies in cities is the key to China achieving its national emission mitigation targets. China is experiencing rapid urbanization and facing huge inequality in regional development and then shrinking cities generate. This study, for the first time, discusses long-term CO2 emission patterns of shrinking cities with comparisons of growing cities. 55 cities in Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta are selected as cases. We first categorize these cities into three groups of shrinking cities and three groups of growing cities with a population index. Each group’s emission patterns in terms ofenergy, employment and industry structures are then examined. We find that CO2 emissions in the rapidly shrinking group presented a continuously increasing trend, while the other five groups reached their emission peaks in 2011–2013. For slightly and moderately shrinking groups, CO2 emission mitigation was a positive sign but occurred with the decline of secondary industry, especially for resource-based or heavy manufacturing cities, such as Daqing and Anshan in Northeast China. In the case of three types of growing cities, cities were capable of mitigating CO2 emissions and maintaining economic growth. The slightly growing group was the optimal type among these six groups. Its CO2 emissions experienced a decline with an annual rate of −1.47% during 2013–2015, while the economy still soared (increased by 7.27% annually). New economic growth points should be fostered to mitigate further shrinkage and achieve sustainable development for shrinking cities. The cities’ categorization rules, research thinking, andresults offered in this study could provide a reference for other cities or developing countries at similar industrialization/urbanization phases to abbreviate their path towards a low-carbon economy.
Keywords：CO2 emissions
Shrinking cityGrowing cityPopulationUrbanizationChina



Fig. 1. Spatial distribution and population index of cities in Northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta for 2003–2009 (A) and 2009–2015 (B).


Fig. 2. Mean CO2 emissions and carbon intensity of each city group.

Fig. 3. Employment and industry structure of each city group.