Even full investment subsidy cannot stimulate investment immediately.Both electricity tariff subsidy and CO2 utilization subsidy are feasible.Electricity tariff subsidy is higher than the current subsidy for renewable energy.CO2 utilization subsidy is more favorable for developing full-chain CCUS project.02摘要本研究运用实物期权模型，探讨了高、中、低煤炭价格水平下，初始投资补贴、电价补贴、CO2利用补贴等不同补贴机制，对中国碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)项目投资收益的影响。研究结果表明：（1）在当前油价水平下（70美元/桶），美国政府实施的45Q法案对CO2利用补贴（CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery）的方式是可以应用到中国的，并且能够即刻激发投资行为。然而，全额初始投资补贴还需要通过其他方式予以辅助，电价补贴需要比目前可再生能源补贴的水平（0.019元/千瓦时）至少提高2.6倍。（2）全额投资补贴和电价补贴下的临界油价至少需要比现有油价高出2.7%和14.1%。（3）现阶段，电价补贴和CO2利用补贴都是可行的，但电价补贴需要超过目前可再生能源的补贴水平；相比之下，CO2利用补贴更有利于推动全产业链CCUS项目的发展，并且有助于提高石油产量。（4）在低煤价水平下，当技术学习率达到30%时，最佳投资时机可提前至2023年；在中高煤价水平下，技术学习率未达到5%和10%之前，投资者应放弃投资。本文研究结果能为政府制定CCUS补贴政策提供参考。A carbon tax is a tax levied on the carbon content of fuels (transport & energy sector) and, like carbon emissions trading, is a form of carbon pricing. The term carbon tax is also used to refer to a carbon dioxide equivalent tax, the latter of which is quite similar but can be placed on any type of greenhouse gas or combination of greenhouse gases, emitted by any economic sector. (from Wikepedia)

03AbstractThis study adopts the real option approach to compare the impacts of different subsidy schemes, including initial investment subsidy, electricity tariff subsidy, and CO2 utilization subsidy, on the investment benefit of carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) project in China under high, medium, and low coal price levels, respectively. The results show that: (1) Under the current oil price level (70 USD/bbl), CO2 utilization subsidy referring to the 45Q Tax Credit released by the US government is high enough to trigger the investment behavior immediately. However, the full initial investment subsidy needs to be replenished with other ways and the electricity tariff subsidy needs to increase by 2.6 times compared with the current subsidy for renewable energy (0.019 CNY/kWh). (2) The critical oil prices under full investment subsidy and electricity tariff subsidy need to increase by at least 2.7% and 14.1%, respectively. (3) Both electricity tariff subsidy and CO2 utilization subsidy are feasible, while the former need to exceed the current subsidy for renewable energy and the latter is more favorable in promoting the development of full-chain CCUS project and the increase of oil production. (4) The optimal investment timing can be brought forward to 2023 if the technological learning rate reaches 30% under the low coal price level; the investors should abandon the project until the technological learning rates reach 5% and 10% under the medium and high coal price levels, respectively. Overall, our results enable to provide useful information for the policy-makers to formulate subsidy policies.

Keywords：CCUSInitial investment subsidyElectricity tariff subsidyCO2 utilization subsidyReal option

Fig. 1. The vertically integrated business model and corresponding government subsidies for CCUS project.