我国碳排放强度虽然不断下降，但市场机制在这一过程中所起作用较为有限，未来可能不利于我国应对碳边境税。欧盟碳边境证价格将由专门的CBAM管理机构决定，这一价格以欧盟碳市场配额拍卖价格为参考，因此将与欧盟碳市场碳价较为接近。2021年8月欧盟碳市场成交均价约57欧元/吨，且随着欧盟碳市场第四阶段更严格的总量控制与配额分配措施落实，很可能将在未来进一步增长（数据来源：ICE交易所）。2021年8月我国全国碳市场成交均价约47元/吨，远低于欧盟碳市场，且仅覆盖火电行业，即使欧盟允许以国内碳价抵扣碳边境证价格，也无法有效缓解受影响企业面临的压力（数据来源：上海环境能源交易所）。通过行政管控、新能源补贴和标准设置等其他手段即使可以实现与碳定价机制实际效果类似的减排，由于很难折算至碳价，也可能无法得到欧盟的豁免，将使谈判进程复杂化。建议我国稳步推进全国碳市场建设，探索纳入有偿分配与配额总量控制等制度，逐步纳入钢铁与铝等更多碳排放较密集的行业，同时探索以碳税或类似机制作为补充，促进形成合理碳价，更多依靠市场机制实现减排，并争取掌握全球碳定价权。

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作者：

周杰俣  中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院研究员

崔   莹 中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院助理院长、气候金融研究中心主任